Monday, February 15, 2010

My Breakdown of SEC's 2010 recruiting

After a few weeks to take everything in, here's my own positional breakdown of how the SEC teams faired:

Quarterback

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Tennessee
6. Vanderbilt
7. South Carolina
8. Florida
9. Georgia
10. Kentucky
11. Miss. State
12. Ole Miss

Analysis: In my opinion, Alabama signed one of the classes top five overall QB's in Phillip Sims, he really impressed me with his arm strength during all-star competitions and I think he can be a future 3-year starter. LSU finished second with Zach Lee who I think has possibly more upside than any QB the conference signed. I've been a Jacoby Walker fan for quite a while so I think Arkansas did well there. I'm not a big fan of Cam Newton, but he does have good athleticism and Rivals chose to make him a 5-star so I ranked them 4th. Tennessee's 3 QBs I'm not that big of a fan of individually but you'd think one of the three would prove to be worth something so the volume of their class is what pushed them slightly ahead of Vanderbilt's signing of Jordan Rodgers. However, I do think Rodgers could potentially have a better career than any of the 3 UT signed. I like Connor Shaw's athleticism but don't think he's a natural thrower and I haven't been that impressed with Thompson so that's why SC finished 7th. I think Trey Burton could be a good QB for Florida but he didn't have the kind of senior year I thought and I think that's why UF stole Temple's QB commitment in the two-star Muprhy. I think Hutson Mason could be a decent QB for Georgia, and he set a lot of records, still I think as an actual prospect, he's no better than Logan Gray. There's nothing that impressed me about Tyler Brause and I'm shocked that he's even a 3-star by Rivals. I literally didn't know that until I looked that up today. I think MSU really reached to sign Brett Favre's nephew. I know he had great numbers but he's small and he doesn't jump out on video and he was absolutely horrible in the Offense-Defense All-American game I saw. Ole Miss didn't sign a true QB for this class.

Running Back

1. Auburn
2. Florida
3. LSU
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. South Carolina
7. Kentucky
8. Vanderbilt
9. Mississippi State
10. Tennessee
11. Ole Miss
12. Arkansas

Analysis: I think Dyer has a chance to be another Barry Sanders type and think Auburn got a great back, so they won this one going away. I think Brown has a lot of ability to be a difference making every down back in Meyer's system. I've always really liked Mack Brown. LSU got three good backs that could provide speed, elusiveness and power to the backfield. However I wouldn't be surprised if one comes a linebacker, so that's why they were behind AU and Florida. Alabama adds more speed in Grant and another skilled fullback in Fowler. I really like Malcome for UGA, but just not as much as the other collection of backs that those in front of UGA signed. South Carolina got their local jewel in Lattimore but I've never been that happy about him, seeing as though he fumbles the ball a lot. He reminds me of Demetrius Summers in a way. Kentucky closed with a good RB group of Gainer, Sanders and Simpson, though I've never been that high on Simpson. Still, I've always liked Gainer and Sanders is a scatback who can make things happen. I loved the addition of Rajaan Bennett to Vandy's backfield because I think he's a true combo of Zac Stacy and Wesley Tate and could be a future 1,000 yard back at VU as well. I think MSU had a good hall with Nick Griffin, but I wasn't that impressed with Ballard so that's why the finished just a little below Kentucky and Vandy. Rajion Neal had some good stats his senior year but I don't know if its the fact that MSU didn't have a problem with him going to Tennessee or what, but my opinion of him is just a little lower than what Rivals.com's is. I was definitely not impressed with Nick Parker in the Alabama vs. Mississippi all-star game and think he should be a linebacker in college. Same thing for Eastland honestly..and will he even qualify coming out of high school? Jeff Scott's probably the only true back of the guys OM signed and he just seems like a straight ahead runner with little upside to me. Arkansas didn't sign any true running backs in this class.

Wide Receivers

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Tennessee
4. LSU
5. Mississippi State
6. Auburn
7. Ole Miss
8. Vanderbilt
9. South Carolina
10. Arkansas
11. Georgia
12. Kentucky

Analysis: Florida had one of the top WR hauls nationally and what's not to like about the group. They got a beast in Dunbar, a big playmaker in Coxson, a highly skilled guy in Dunkley and a guy like Patton that draws comparisons to Percy Harvin. Alabama also got a lot of versatility with guys like Carswell, DeAndrew White and Keiwone Malone who might be one a better WR than 2009's Marlon Brown ever was. Tennessee closed with the athletic freak of Darick Rogers and while I hate his incosistent hands, someone like Justin Hunter should make up for it. I've been kind of "blah" with Matt Milton and think he's more a future TE than WR. The guy that might be the best overall though for them is Ted Meline..he might be their next Peerless Price and outshine them all. LSU didn't have the volume of signees as the others, but certainly had quality with Kadron Boone and James Wright. I'm not sure if either will be immediate high end impact guys though, but they might prove to be better than UT's class when all is said and done in a few years. MSU grabbed quite a talented guy in Robert Johnson, him alone puts them at 5th place, but I like Malcolm Johnson too. Auburn's class is a bit of a mystery to me but I'll go with Rivals on this one. I know that Richardson's talented but I'm not sure if Goodwin's as consistent as a 4-star is supposed to be. Ole Miss got a real good local player in Sanders but they might have got a real jewel in Mireles and that's why they finished 7th. I think Vanderbilt got real quality with their four and think there is the potential for any of the four to become very valuable playmakers for VU. Matthews and Krause especially could be guys that could prove to have been underrated. I put VU slightly ahead of South Carolina because even though they got Ace Sanders, when you watch his film, there's a question to me if his quickness is really all that much better than Pruitt's. Their speed is comparable. Also Sanders profile seemed to explode because of how coy he was with reporters. Arkansas class could end up being better than I think it is because they've got some athletes in Humphreys and Wade, but Hoover people would tell anyone that Humphreys only seems to play when he wants too and Wade is thought to be a better DB prospect than true WR prospect. Add to Jay Herndon who's questionable as a D1-A prospect much less SEC prospect, and it makes me rank them at 10th. Georgia seemed to only get marginal additions here. I know that Michael Bennett is well thought off in his area and friends with VU signees but I don't know if he's that much better than someone like Michael Moore was. Don't really know much of Outlaw. Kentucky signed no prospects who have been projected as true WR's this year.

Tight End

1. Florida
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Kentucky
5. Ole Miss
6. Arkansas
7. Auburn
8. Tennessee
9. Georgia
9. Mississippi State
9. South Carolina
9. Vanderbilt

Analysis: Only 16 true projected tight ends signed with SEC schools but it's debatable as to where some will really play. Four schools including Vandy, Georgia, MSU and South Carolina didn't sign a guy that was truly projected as a tight end, though for VU and MSU's case, they did sign some "athletes" that will likely play H-back. However, I went by Rivals here and ranked the "athletes" seperately below. Anyways, Florida signed a real talented guy in Gerald Christian who could be another Aaron Hernandez type. They also added McFarland who's legit Top 25 tight end as well, giving them the nod for best TE class. LSU added Travis Dickson who could be the best "h-back" of the class while adding Nick Jacobs and a good athlete in Cameron Fordham, giving them the 2nd rated class. Alabama grabbed Vogler and Jones, and both could be solid. Kentucky snagged 4-star Alex Smith, which greatly improved their class overall and they signed two other guys who could play tight end. Ole Miss, Arkansas and Auburn's tight ends are really a push honestly and Tennessee added a guy in Rivera who may be a tight end or end up at DE, who knows. Doesn't seem like an overally talented group on video, but this position is always hard to project true impact level anyways.

Offensive Line

1. Auburn
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Arkansas
6. LSU
7. South Carolina
8. Georgia
9. Vanderbilt
10. Ole Miss
11. Miss. State
12. Kentucky

Analysis: In truth, the king of this category really came down to Auburn and Alabama. Auburn got the nod with Shun Coleman and the late swap of Eric Mack. I also like Chris Slade, though I think Ed Christian's a little overrated. Don't know much about the JUCO they signed but Rivals likes him. Alabama closed with Arie Kouandijo to go along with the strong Chad Lindsey and talented Shephard. Florida got two no doubt Top 100 players to me in Ian Silberman and Chaz Green. Tennessee made some NSD headlines with James Stone signing but honestly he's not as good as Jawaun James or Zach Fulton might be, so that's where UT really made the argument for top 3, I think Pair's one of the biggest projects out there though and that's why UF got a slight nod to me. Arkansas got a solid guy in Feldt but I think their stud will be the German kid Denton Simek. LSU only got two OL's but they got quality in Evan Washington and Elliot Porter. Still the lack of more than two put them behind some of the other schools. South Carolina and UGA's hauls seemed pretty close but I ranked SC a little higher with the signing of AJ Cann. I ranked Vandy 9th with three 3-stars and a guy that I think was underrated in White. I liked them a little better than OM's because I was not impressed with Jared Duke, VU basically said thanks but no thanks to Chase Hughes and the Hackney kid is only rated so high because he went to Hargrave. Just liked VU's haul better than OM's. MSU got Muniz who I think is a good addition but when you look at the rest of them, lot of questionable guys. Kentucky's only projected OL signee was a two-star from Ohio who seemed like a fringe prospect. I don't know if any DL's they signed will become OL's either.

Defensive Line

1. Florida
2. Auburn
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Ole Miss
8. Vanderbilt
9. Arkansas
10. Mississippi State
11. Kentucky
12. South Carolina

Analysis: Florida won this one without a doubt, five legit 3-stars among a group of six and Ball and Trail could end up being 2-3 year starters too. Great haul by UF and why they're probably going to keep winning the East with regularity. Auburn also had a real good class with Whitaker and Lemonier and Sanders showed me something during the AL vs. MISS all-star game. I do think Carter's a little overrated, but still a good haul for the Tigers. Georgia just finished behind Auburn because I really like Garrison Smith obviously and I think Thornton's a solid addition. I'm not that high on Fields or Morant though, I'm actually a little higher on Burrows. LSU came in 4th with a solid group but it finished this high with the addition of Ego Ferguson Jr. Alabama finished fifth because I think Alfy Hill could be a stud and Hubbard could be a freak athlete on the end. However, I wasn't that high of Ivory when I saw him at VU's camp and I think Love's overrated honestly and probably a future OL. Tennessee got the better of the Byrnes DL's with Corey Miller but I think John Brown's been over valued with Rivals. I wouldn't be surprised if Martaze Jackson ends up being a better player than Brown or even Jacques Smith. I didn't know what to think of Ole Miss class. Bennett, Martin and Thomas seem overrated to me, but Carlos Thompson wasn't and that's why they got 7th place. Hard to believe that probably the best DL haul Vanderbilt's ever had finished 8th but that's the reality of the SEC and why it's so much harder to win than people really realize. Still, I think all 5 of VU's DL's are unquestioned SEC prospects and that's evidence by all having other SEC offers and being pursued by SEC and other major schools as signing day approached. I rated those 5 above Arkansas haul because even though Barnett was a solid addition, I haven't been high on Jones for quite a while and don't know why he's a 4-star for Rivals. Also not high on Chris Smith. MSU had a 4-star in Eulls that I liked but I didn't like Virges and I think Carmon's probably going to end up on the OL. Kentucky's haul is a bit of touch and go with me, because I think McAdoo's a talent obviously but the rumor here in Murfreesboro is that he won't qualify because he doesn't like to go to class. I like Douglas and Henderson's okay, but Delic, Rumph and especially Laughlin seem overrated to me. Just not that impressed with their DLine class overall. South Carolina had a quality player in Quarles but the other 3 players are 2-stars who really no one knew about until the final month of recruiting basically and SC took them when they couldn't get other guys to switch from the schools they were committed to (i.e. Woestmann and Chandler).

Linebacker

1. Florida
2. Auburn
3. Alabama
4. South Carolina
5. Kentucky
6. LSU
7. Mississippi State
8. Ole Miss
9. Georgia
10. Vanderbilt
11. Arkansas
12. Tennessee

Analysis: From a total collection, this position actually looked to be with QB as the weakest in the conference by far. Only 27 projected linebackers were signed for the conference and really, only three classes really jump out and impress you on paper: Florida, Auburn and Alabama. Florida got Michael Taylor to switch from UT to UF and also brought in the talented Kitchens and Ajagbe, which I saw as being slightly better than Auburn who got good ones in Holland and Owens but an overrated guy in Curry. Curry really did nothing to impress me when I saw Calhoun play Buford. Alabama only signed possibly the top linebacker signee period in CJ Mosley but that lack of volume put them behind UF and Auburn to me. South Carolina got a JUCO who's pretty good and Golston seems like he'll be a good prospect, so they finished 4th. Kentucky's class would probably normally be 9th or 10th during most years but I gave a nod to Johnson and Patterson hauls over some of the other schools. LSU's got a pretty decent group but definitely not their typical standard. I really don't know between 7-12 so I went with these factors: MSU got Harrison who seems like a good prospect, Ole Miss got Williams who seems to have some good upside, UGA's writers have tried to convince their fans that Baker's a linebacker and not safety but I don't know, I like him but wouldn't rate their clas higher than 9th. VU checks in at 10th for me because I love Garnham's speed and think Lassing is going to be a quality player for VU. I guess I bought in there, but this is also without a doubt the area of VU's class that I would've liked to have seem them add one more prospect, one more "combo" type guy that could play the middle as well as the outside. Arkansas's Gaston may have been a three-star but I don't know, he seems more like a DE to me. Tennessee got Propst to switch and I think could prove to be a valued player but he's not that impressive on video and he didn't garner a lot of positive reviews during the AL vs. Miss all-star game. Add to it that VU passed over him when they could've got him, I just have my question marks. And then you include Crump who was very unknown and though to be more of an undersized end than LB, it just made them be the last rated class for me.

Defensive Backs

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Georgia
5. Vanderbilt
6. Ole Miss
7. Tennessee
8. South Carolina
9. Auburn
10. Arkansas
11. Kentucky
12. Mississippi State

Analysis: This was like the DL, and a group of really talented prospects everywhere, though it's still a little top heavy. Florida and Alabama between them had about 8 guys that I would consider worthy of Top 100. I gave the slight not to the Gators though because I like the 5-star Elam a little more than the 5-star Milliner. Still, Watkins and Shaw are great prospects for the Gators just as Fulton and and Menzie are for the Tide, so it's probably more like 1a and 1b in terms of ranking. LSU got two real solid prospects in Mathieu and Reid, so I went with them a little bit over Ogletree and Hamilton combo at UGA. Also, I'm not high on Derek Owens, so I went with LSU over UGA for that reason as well. I put Vanderbilt's group over Ole Miss and Tennessee's group in large part averaged out to be a little better and well, I just value some like Simmons and Ladler more than I do guys like Grimes or Coleman. In Tennesse's case, they did get two four stars that was good for their rankings, but I feel like Dave Clark is only a 4-star because he went to the Independence CC. He was bound for Memphis three weeks before signing day, with no SEC schools interested but then TN comes in and grabs him just as they stole the 2-star Sapp from East Carolina. On paper they might seem fine, but I just valued Vandy and Ole Miss' overall group more than UT's. South Carolina closed well with Golightly but I think Williams was overrated after seeing him in the Georgia playoffs and everyone believes that Victor Hampton's been overrated for a while. I just didn't like their overall class compared to the other three. Auburn got some value in Mincy but it wasn't enough to put them higher than 9th to me and Arkansas' Carr might have a decent ranking but most know that he wasn't even a real all-region performer this past year at Gainesville and Smith doesn't seem to be that great of a safety prospect. I think Kentucky got a good player in Trimble, but Gibbs, Simmons and Bailey seem like projects to me. Miss. State's haul might end being better but I'm not a fan of Chris Hughes or Love, so there was nowhere else for them to go but 12th.

Athletes

1. LSU
2. Florida
3. Mississippi State
4. Ole Miss
5. Alabama
6. Arkansas
7. Auburn
8. Kentucky
9. Tennessee
10. Vanderbilt
11. Georgia
11. South Carolina

Analysis: LSU really cleared up in this category, I just wonder where some guys are going to play. Still, I really like Spencer Ware and Ronnie Vinson and I was high on Sam Gibson of course. Florida brought in Dowling, Travon Van and Robert Clark and I valued that group over MSU's group of Jay Hughes, Brandon Hill and Michael Carr. Both groups would seem to be defensive backs in the future though I think UF's guys will be better DB's in the long run. Ole Miss' athletes include Randall Mackey, who may be an ahtletic QB for them for the future and Delvin Jones should be a good DE in the future. I like Blake Sims, probably one of the better overall athletes but he's not going to put Alabama's athlete class that much higher. Arkansas and Auburn signed a lot of guys rated as athletes, which makes you wonder what they are going to do with a lot of them. In the end, I picked Beachum's ability as a possible DT above Auburn's addition of Ryan Smith and Ryan White. Kentucky got Priester obviously, and since I always liked him as a possible DB and offensive specialist, I had to rank him accordingly. Tennessee got a good DB/special teams player in Dixon but I think Fugate is a throw away guy honestly. If it was between Blake Gowder and him, I would've put VU ahead of Tennessee, but Dixon made the difference there. Georgia and South Carolina didn't sign any prospects rated as "athletes" for this class.

Kicking Specialists

1. Auburn
2. Arkansas
3. LSU
4. Vanderbilt
5. Tennessee
6. Alabama
7. Kentucky
8. South Carolina
9. Florida
9. Georgia
9. Mississippi State
9. Ole Miss

Analysis: This position obviously involves just as many walk-ons as scholarship prospects at times, but I still ranked it. I used both production and two actual kicking sources above Rivals rankings for the position, which I really wonder how and where they came up with them quite honestly. I can't believe they didn't rate Spear in their Top 25 yet put him 4th most accurate? Huh? Anyways, I went with Auburn No.1 due to Steve Clark moreso than Parkey who Chris Sailer had as the nation's top kicker. Clark's an impressive punter and I think that's more valued for AU's haul, though Parkey is obviously a good prospect. No.2 was Arkansas who brought in Eddie Camara, a guy from Texas with a lot of positive hype. They also signed another specialist. LSU got a pretty good punter in Wing, I was impressed with his video. I ranked Vandy 4th because of how powerful Spear's leg is supposed to be, his career and versatility as a long kicker and kickoff guy as well as perhaps a punting future. Palardy is hyped by Rivals but aside from kickoffs he's not considered to be that accurate of a field goal kicker according to experts, so I rated UT's class 5th. Alabama got a good athlete in Foster but don't know if he's going to be a good kicker, Williams might be better down the road. Kentucky was 7th with Mansour who Sailer rated 22nd as a kicker. South Carolina was eighth with Fish while Florida, Georgia, MSU and Ole Miss didn't sign a kicker to scholarship.

So according to the average ranking of the positions, this was what the overall ranking of the classes I came to:

1. Florida (2.2)
2. Alabama (3.3)
3. LSU (3.4)
4. Auburn (4)
5. Arkansas (6.9)
5. Tennessee (6.9)
7. Georgia (7)
8. Ole Miss (7.3)
9. South Carolina (7.4)
10. Vanderbilt (7.6)
11. Kentucky (8.3)
12. Mississippi State (8.5)

I thought my analysis was very objective, but hey, it's just my one opinion, so whatever. I agreed with Rivals in a lot of cases, though there were some places where I disagreed and my system was by average, not just doubling up on points and such, so that's probably why some of my takes are different than the network.

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